NFL Ratings (1970 - present)

Welcome to my NFL ratings page!

The model produces two ratings on a weekly basis - REACT, which uses 20 weeks of data and HOTTAKE, which uses 10 weeks of data. REACT is designed to be reflective of how well a team is playing right now, while HOTTAKE goes to the extreme and overreacts to everything to mimic the emotional swings of being a fan.

Only three variables are used to rank NFL teams: who each team played, the final margin of each contest, and how long ago each game was. Both models weigh recent results more heavily than older results. Ratings are calculated using data from every week in NFL history starting back in the 1970 season - the first after the AFL-NFL merger.

The scale of results is relative, so the difference between two teams is the predicted scoring result between the two. In practical terms, good teams have ratings between 5 and 10, great teams between 10 and 15, and all-time great teams above 15. Similarly, bad teams have ratings between -5 and -10, awful teams between -10 and -15, and all-time terrible teams below -15.

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