9/20/2013 · originally published on uselesssportsanalysis.com

Showdown: Team LeBron vs. Team Durant

Last month, we debuted our new Showdown segment, where two writers face off and a winner is declared.  We held a fantasy NBA draft between Adrian and John to see what might happen if LeBron James and Kevin Durant were asked to choose players, playground-style, for the All Star Game.  Kevin Durant had the first pick, and here's what the teams looked like:

Team Durant (in order of selection)
Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Marc Gasol, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, Andre Iguodala, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Tony Allen, Dwyane Wade, Zach Randolph, Kawhi Leonard

Team LeBron (in order of selection)
LeBron James, Dwight Howard, James Harden, Stephen Curry, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Al Horford, Russell Westbrook, Blake Griffin, Ryan Anderson, DeMarcus Cousins, Paul Pierce

Well, it's time to pick a winner!

What's the first step?  Well, watching the game, naturally ... in a simulation in the PS3 game NBA 2K13!

I entered the full lineups, with Team LeBron being the Heat and Team Durant being the Thunder.  I let NBA 2K13 decide on starting lineups, rotations, and strategies.  And I watched -- yes, watched -- a full, 48-minute game between these two teams, set in Miami.  (Highest difficulty level, fatigue turned on, injuries turned off.)

Here were the starting lineups as selected by NBA 2K13 (and apparently sponsored by State Farm):

After some opening theatrics ...

... it was time for the game!

And holy crap.  What a game it was.

Carmelo Anthony dominated the first quarter with 14 points for the Heat, but the Thunder led 33-32 after one thanks to a balanced scoring effort.  LeBron James found his shooting touch to put up 9 points in the second quarter, but Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul led the Thunder to a 70-68 halftime lead.  James Harden came alive in the third quarter, scoring 10 to give the Heat a narrow 100-99 lead after three.  And Kevin Durant finally asserted himself in the fourth to keep the game close down the stretch.

The finish was very exciting:

• Down 128-124 with just under one minute remaining, Kevin Durant nailed a three pointer to pull the Thunder to within one.
• With the shot clock running low, James Harden drives into the paint and hits a tough, and-one layup.  After making the free throw, the Heat are up 131-127 with 32 seconds to go.
• Chris Paul catches the Heat napping with a coast-to-coast layup.  Thunder pull to within 2 points with 27 seconds to go.
• The Thunder decide to extend the game and intentionally foul.  Harden is sent to the line and hits both free throws.  Heat up, 133-129.
• Dwyane Wade (remember that he's now on the Thunder) responds with his own drive to the basket -- he makes it and gets fouled.  After hitting the free throw, the Thunder are down just 1 point with 18 seconds left.
• Harden is intentionally fouled again.  He hits both.  Heat up, 135-132.
• The Heat masterfully defend against the three point shot and force the Thunder to pass the ball around the perimeter, running the clock.  With just four seconds remaining in the game, Dwyane Wade hits an uncontested layup to pull it to 135-134.
• Carmelo Anthony is intentionally fouled, and he hits both to make it 137-134.
• Chris Paul misses a three at the buzzer.  Heat win, 137-134!

Game notes:

• Neither team led by double digits at any point of the game
• Both teams shot right around 60%
• The Heat had a 24-8 advantage on fast break points, and led in steals 9-3
• The Thunder had a 68-56 advantage in the paint
• LeBron James struggled with his shot (7/20), but he controlled the action, with 17 points, 8 rebounds, and a game-high 11 assists
• Carmelo Anthony (Heat) shot 80% for the game and led all scorers with 36 points
• James Harden (Heat) put up a game-high 22 points in the 2nd half
• Russell Westbrook (Heat) led all players with a +/- of +10 and was second with 9 assists
• Kevin Durant led the Thunder in scoring in the 4th quarter after being quite for much of the contest, and he was the only Thunder starter with a positive +/- (+1)
• Kobe Bryant (Thunder) led the Thunder in minutes, shots, and points

Final player stats:

So Team LeBron narrowly won the simulation.  But we're not done yet!  NBA 2K13 made lineup and strategy decisions based on last year's player ratings, so we needed to get more input from LeBron (Adrian) and Durant (John) to look deeper at this.

Starting Lineups
Team Durant: Chris Paul (PG), Kobe Bryant (SG), Kevin Durant (SF), Kevin Love (PF), Marc Gasol (C)
Team LeBron: Stephen Curry (PG), James Harden (SG), Paul George (SF), LeBron James (PF), Dwight Howard (C)

Gameplans
Team Durant focused on defense:

• Marc Gasol, Tim Duncan, and Zach Randolph will shut down all post offense
• Chris Paul, Tony Allen, and Andre Iguodala can slow down scoring guards
• Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant can handle the scoring load, and the rest of the team can complement them

Team LeBron focused on flexibility:

• Elite speed at all positions means transition buckets and open 3s
• Several pick-and-roll combinations (LeBron / Dwight, Curry / LeBron, Harden / Dwight, Harden / LeBron)
• Defensive mobility and length allows for switching while defending opposing pick-and-roll

The matchups are very close -- both teams have a lot of talent.  Team LeBron has the better top-tier talent, but Team Durant is built in a more complementary fashion.

I have serious chemistry questions about Team LeBron, particularly with Carmelo and Westbrook riding the pine behind players that they don't believe are better than them.  Westbrook sitting, in particular, may negate the potential "eff you" edge (since Durant chose Chris Paul over his real-life teammate).  There's a similar factor going the other way with Dwyane Wade on Team Durant, but Kobe can play the "five rings" card to keep Wade in check.  I don't think Curry has earned that in Westbrook's eyes.

When it comes to the "pandering to the judge" factor, I love that Team Durant has both Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard.  I'm a bit shocked, actually, that LeBron didn't pick up Tony Parker at the end of the draft to get an experienced point guard.  (Or how about the biggest shock, that 2011 MVP Derrick Rose wasn't even drafted!)

I like the team that Durant has built here.  In fact, I actually love it.

All of this said -- I'm just not sure that there is an answer for LeBron James right now.  He's so versatile on both sides of the court, and he commands so much respect from his teammates.  Does that neutralize the potential chemistry / headcase factor?  I'm not sure.  But I'm leaning yes.

Team LeBron wins in 7 games

-rj