FAKE RONJAN!!The emo hedge
I'm a San Antonio Spurs fan. They're actually the only team in sports that I root for, as I divorced the Denver Broncos in early 2009 and lost interest in the Cincinnati Reds over time after I moved to the east coast.
As you might expect, I'm borderline catatonic today, as the Spurs lost two straight games handily in Oklahoma City to see their series tied 2-2. I'm beyond paranoid about a repeat of the 2012 collapse against the same team in the same round with the same 2-0 lead -- I've already accepted it in my mind as the most likely outcome.
It is difficult to win a seven-game series in basketball when your opponent has the best player on the court. It’s even more difficult when your opponent has the two best overall players on the court as well as the best defender -- as the Thunder have this year in league MVP Kevin Durant, team catalyst Russell Westbrook, and out-for-the-season-oh-wait-never-mind Serge Ibaka.
The Spurs have now dropped nine consecutive games in Oklahoma City, and they have a tall task to rebound against a team that has now beaten them six times this season.
I haven’t thrown in the towel, because that would be stupid, but I have clearly prepared myself for the worst.
Why am I talking about this? Because, at this point, the Spurs are still the favorite in Vegas to win the series! Enter the "emotional hedge".
The emotional hedge is certainly not a new concept or one that I've invented -- Chad Millman wrote a good article on ESPN Insider about it four years ago. But I think it's an interesting strategy, and it's one that I've used for the past six years.
The basic idea is simple. If your team has a key contest coming up, how much would you be willing to pay in order to guarantee that they win? That's how much you bet against them for that same outcome.
There are two keys to using the emo hedge effectively, in my opinion:
- Never bet more than you're willing to invest in an outcome that you want to happen. This ensures that you are never caught rooting against your favorite team for financial reasons.
- Pick your spots and invest in the best odds situation where Vegas believes in your team, but you don't. This ensures that the potential gain for a bad outcome is worth the investment in the first place.
In the case of the Spurs, the best time to emo hedge would have been to buy the Thunder series price before game 4, when it was obvious that Ibaka's return was a difference-maker but the Spurs were still leading the series 2-1.
Alas, I did not drive to Atlantic City to make that bet yesterday before game 4, when the odds were around 7:2, and I missed my chance. If I were to invest today, I'd instead pick the Thunder for the game 5 money line, as that pays out a bit better than the overall series price and game 5 is typically the "swing game" for 7-game series.
All that said, I've decided not to bet on this series. It's not to be "pure", where "no subconscious part of me is rooting against my team", because when you emo hedge correctly, that's never an issue. Ever.
I've decided not to bet because the Thunder just appear to be a strong, deserving team, a worthy opponent to hypothetically knock the Spurs out. Last year, even when the Spurs were on the cusp of winning a championship, I never truly felt that they were the best team in basketball. I feel the same way this year.
Maybe the Spurs are just the consummate team who pushes truly great individuals to their apex, and that's how history will remember their stretch after their 2007 championship. Nothing wrong with that!
(Or maybe, just maybe, they'll pull it together, turn it around, and win it all.)
-rj