FAKE RONJAN!!Russell Westbrook :(
Well then. That changes everything.
I had planned a future post on the best title rematches, assuming that the Heat and Thunder were on a collision course. While it could still happen, I'm not going to write it in advance anymore.
Obviously this is a much bigger deal than the slight inconvenience of changing my June blog posts. Westbrook is my favorite NBA player who doesn't play for the Spurs. And while I'm obviously rooting for San Antonio to win the championship, this flat out sucks. Period.
This morning I went back and read my 2012 Finals preview. At the time, it seemed like we were at the beginning of a legendary rivalry. Maybe we still are, but you just never know how small or large title windows are.
I've pasted that preview below, as it was the genesis of "Useless Sports Analysis" and is a sobering reminder of just how quickly things can change.
-rj
~~~
I love the NBA. I love the stars, the rivalries, the drama, the athleticism, the entertainment, all of it. But what I love most about the NBA is how it draws out narrative threads with much longer spans than you see in other sports. The seasons flow together to tell a fascinating story over decades.
Why the melodramatic introduction? Because it feels like we're on the verge of something amazing in the next two weeks -- something we haven't seen in the NBA in a loooooong time. This feels like a seminal matchup that can shape the next 10 years of the sport.
Heat vs. Thunder. Yes, you're going to have to get used to a bunch of bad weather jokes, puns, and memes. But beyond that, this is also one of the most star-studded, intriguing matchups in league history, and one we might want to get used to seeing. Am I overselling this?
The marquee matchup: #6 vs. #35
"But it's a team sport, it's not won and lost by individuals!" Fine, fine, fine. This is still an amazing main event matchup, frankly one of the best we've ever seen.
We imagine these amazing matchups before and during seasons, but they rarely materialize so nicely. We never really got to see Kobe go against a superstar guard of his caliber, and of course he never faced LeBron (despite how much Nike and their puppet ad campaign wanted it to happen). Duncan and Shaq won titles facing consummate teams but with little in the way of superstar bigs. Even going further back, despite combining for 8 titles between 1980 and 1988, the Lakers and Celtics only met three times in the Finals.
Then there's this simple breakdown: a 27-year-old MVP is facing a 23-year-old MVP runner-up in the finals. This happens less often than you might think considering that the MVP votes typically go to teams on the top of the standings. And it almost never happens when the two star players are this young.
The last 5 times that the #1 and #2 in the MVP voting met in the NBA Finals, if I don't fail at using the internet:
1998: Michael Jordan (34 years old) #1, Karl Malone (34) #2
1997: Karl Malone (33) #1, Michael Jordan (33) #2
1992: Michael Jordan (28) #1, Clyde Drexler (29) #2
1991: Michael Jordan (27) #1, Magic Johnson (31) #2
1985: Larry Bird (28) #1, Magic Johnson (25) #2
Wow! Our matchup is the youngest on the board, and will still be if they meet again next year.
2012 Oklahoma City Thunder = 1992 Dallas Cowboys
The youngest group of stars in the league is in the Finals, and if they win, they'll have climbed the mountain faster than almost anyone in the history of the Association. There aren't really any recent (since the 80s) parallels for this in the NBA, but the 1992 Dallas Cowboys are a solid one from the NFL.
A team known as much for its youth as its talent? Check. (Dallas had the youngest team in the league. OKC has the youngest star-caliber players in the league.)
A trio of offensive superstars? Check. (For fun, line them up. I say Durant = Aikman as the frontman, Westbrook = Irvin as the crazy X factor, and Harden = Smith as the glue guy.)
Paid their dues just a few years earlier? Check. (The 1989 Cowboys were 1-15. The 2009 Thunder started 3-29.)
Knocked off 3 championship contending conference teams en route to the title game or series? Check. (The 1992 Cowboys faced the Giants, Redskins, and 49ers -- the three teams responsible for the previous 6 Super Bowl championships -- and went 4-1. The 2012 Thunder knocked the Mavs, Lakers, and Spurs -- the three teams that represented a ridiculous 13 consecutive Finals -- out of the playoffs.)
Got to the title round by beating a red-hot 4-time champion on the road? Check. (The veteran 49ers were at home in 1992 on a 9-game winning streak, the veteran Spurs were at home in 2012 up 2-0 on a 20-game winning streak.)
Facing the team in the title round that lost the championship the previous season? Check. (The Heat may not be this generation's Buffalo Bills, but LeBron's already 0-2 in the Finals ... as were the Bills in 1992.)
That Cowboys team, of course, won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years.
The ultimate test: Q-ratings
As for the Heat, it's a fascinating case of public opinion.
I'm pretty sure LeBron is the only player in American sports history to go from being the most popular player in the league to the most hated player in the league overnight. It's an amazing collapse, and perhaps even unfairly so. I'm certainly guilty of rooting against him, vehemently, largely for a callous television show, odd team selection, and a premature victory party.
That said, the old adage is that success cures all ailments, particularly with popularity. The basketball media began that push this year with a surprisingly number of "love LeBron for his talent" angles, most recently by Rick Reilly on ESPN.
It's hard not to see this working, given examples like Kobe Bryant, or perhaps more sickeningly (given the level of proof) with Chris Brown's recent Grammy comeback. If the general populace can forgive alleged sexual assault and alleged domestic violence, they'll get over the fact that LeBron uttered the words "taking my talents to South Beach."
Or will they? Great stories need great villains, and these Heat are the best villains we've seen in sports in years. Looking back, you could argue that the Spygate 2007 Patriots, late 90s / early 00s Yankees, and late 80s Pistons are among the best villains we've had up until this point. All three were vanquished in memorable fashion, but none really came back for a sequel (unless you count the 2009 Yankees victory).
This Heat team is young enough that they should be around for a long time. They have enough flair that they'll have their share of fans. And I have a feeling that next season, I'll be rooting strongly against them. It's just fun to root against a good villain, even a reluctant, self-aware one like LeBron who really truly just wants to be liked.
Watching LeBron rise up off of the mat to win two elimination games against the Celtics spoke to his competitiveness, his talent, and his evolution as a basketball player. He gained a lot of respect in that series. But I'm not sold that he gained any fans, or will if he lifts a trophy over his head in two weeks.
And oh yeah, the basketball should be good, too!
It's hard to see a clear favorite. The Thunder of course have the home court and just rolled more easily over an arguably better Spurs team than the Celtics team that the Heat defeated, but Miami still has the best player on the court.
I'd be shocked if this doesn't come back to Oklahoma City for at least game 6. My official pick is Heat in 6!