FAKE RONJAN!!Home field advantage and the NFL
I've always had a few questions about home field advantage in the NFL.
1. How often does the home team win?
2. Has this advantage varied over the years? (Theory: games are getting more expensive, pricing out die hard fans in exchange for corporatis, so home field advantage is worth less than it used to be)
3. Is home field advantage stronger in the regular season or in the playoffs? (I could see arguments in both directions here -- there are likely to be fewer mismatches in the playoffs since every team is reasonably good, but the better record typically gets to play at home in the playoffs which would expand the advantage)
4. Has playoff home field advantage varied over the years? (Same theory as #2)
Allow one graph to answer all four of these questions:
Well, that was easy! We have answers!
1. How often does the home team win?
The home team wins 58% of the time in the regular season.
2. Has this advantage varied over the years?
There are minor swings over the past 43 seasons as you'd expect (going as low as 51% and as high as 64%), but there are no consistent trends to pick up.
3. Is home field advantage stronger in the regular season or in the playoffs?
It is stronger in the playoffs, by a solid margin -- 68%.
4. Has playoff home field advantage varied over the years?
Interestingly, yes! In the past 10 seasons, we've seen the playoff home field winning percentage drop below the regular season winning percentage five times. It only happened three times in the previous 33 seasons!
It's hard to explain why, although I guess the argument around fans being priced out of nice seats becomes relevant. The ease of reselling tickets on the secondary market and the overall improvement in the television experience (to the point that some would argue it's better to watch on TV than to go to the game at all) may result in less raucous crowds when it matters the most.
The bottom line is that it's easier to win on the road in the playoffs than it used to be, and perhaps that explains why Joe Flacco is the all-time road warrior in NFL history. (And, oh by the way, Mark Sanchez and Jake Delhomme are tied for third.)
One graph, four answers. Not bad!
-rj